如何計(jì)算市場(chǎng)收益率雙語(yǔ)
股市有漲也有跌。假設(shè)每年的股價(jià)不是50就是100，沒(méi)有上漲或下跌趨勢(shì)。那么股市的資本回報(bào)率會(huì)有多大? 接下來(lái)，小編給大家準(zhǔn)備了如何計(jì)算市場(chǎng)收益率雙語(yǔ),歡迎大家參考與借鑒。
如何計(jì)算市場(chǎng)收益率雙語(yǔ)
The stock market goes up and down. Suppose its level alternates each year between 50 and 100, with no upward or downward trend. What is the capital return on the market?
股市有漲也有跌。假設(shè)每年的股價(jià)不是50就是100，沒(méi)有上漲或下跌趨勢(shì)。那么股市的資本回報(bào)率會(huì)有多大?
Common sense suggests the answer is zero. But is that common sense right? In the good years you obtain a return of 100 per cent. In the bad, the yield is minus 50 per cent. The average return is therefore 25 per cent. There is logic to that. If you invested the same amount every year, and sold at the end of a year, you would indeed make – on average – a very attractive return of 25 per cent a year.
根據(jù)常識(shí)，答案應(yīng)該是零。但這一常識(shí)正確嗎?在景氣年份，你可以獲得100%的回報(bào)率;在不景氣年份，回報(bào)率則是負(fù)50%。因此平均收益率為25%。這是符合邏輯的。如果你每年都拿同樣多的錢買股票，并在年末賣掉，那么平均算下來(lái)，實(shí)際上你每年會(huì)獲得25%的回報(bào)率，這很有吸引力。
What if you bought and sold at random? In that case, four options are equally likely: buy and sell at 50, buy and sell at 100, buy at 50 and sell at 100, buy at 100 and sell at 50. The overall annual expected gain is 12.5 per cent.
如果你隨意買賣，結(jié)果又會(huì)如何?在這種情況下，有四種同等概率的可能性：買賣價(jià)格都是50，買賣價(jià)格都是100，50買入100賣出，100買入50賣出?？傮w上，年預(yù)期回報(bào)率為12.5%。
If you are by now thoroughly confused, you are not alone. The average historic return on the volatile equity market is central to calculations of the cost of capital and provision for future pension liabilities. But the figure has been debated for decades. The dispute is less about the underlying data than about the way you make the calculation. The question is often framed as the choice between arithmetic and geometric means.
如果現(xiàn)在你已經(jīng)完全暈了，也屬正常。波動(dòng)性股市的平均歷史回報(bào)率，是計(jì)算資金成本和未來(lái)養(yǎng)老金負(fù)債撥備的重要數(shù)據(jù)。但人們就這一數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)爭(zhēng)論了幾十年。爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)在于這一指標(biāo)的計(jì)算方式，而不是原始數(shù)據(jù)。問(wèn)題往往在于算數(shù)平均數(shù)和幾何平均數(shù)之間的選擇。
But there is no right or wrong answer. In all problems of this kind, the relevant measure is specific to the particular purpose you have in mind.
但這個(gè)問(wèn)題沒(méi)有一個(gè)孰對(duì)孰錯(cuò)的答案。在所有這類問(wèn)題中，方法與你心中特定的目的對(duì)應(yīng)。
The way we measure inflation is, in principle, straightforward too.
總體來(lái)看，我們計(jì)算通脹的方式也非常簡(jiǎn)單。
You take an everyday basket of household goods and send a mystery shopper to discover what the bundle costs. Then you do the same thing a month later and find out how much the price of the basket has increased. You revise the composition of the basket regularly to introduce new goods and eliminate obsolete ones, and to respond to changes in the composition of spending.
你準(zhǔn)備一籃子日常用品，然后讓一個(gè)神秘的購(gòu)物者去弄清這籃用品的成本。一個(gè)月之后做同樣一件事，看看這籃用品的價(jià)格上漲了多少。你定期調(diào)整籃子里面東西的構(gòu)成，增加新產(chǎn)品，去掉過(guò)時(shí)的產(chǎn)品，根據(jù)消費(fèi)構(gòu)成的變化而變化。
But every month some of the goods are on special offer. Perhaps you can buy one bottle of shampoo and get one free. The price of shampoo has fallen by 50 per cent but you spend the same and get two bottles. Then the offer ends, and the price has risen by 100 per cent.
但每個(gè)月都有一些產(chǎn)品打特價(jià)。比如說(shuō)洗發(fā)水買一贈(zèng)一，也就是說(shuō)洗發(fā)水的價(jià)格降低了50%，或者說(shuō)用同樣的價(jià)格購(gòu)買了兩瓶。當(dāng)特價(jià)結(jié)束的時(shí)候，價(jià)格又上漲了100%。
If you spent the same on shampoo and conditioner, and then the price of shampoo fell by half, and the price of conditioner doubled, we would probably want to say that the cost of washing your hair has gone up.
如果洗發(fā)水和護(hù)發(fā)素的價(jià)格本來(lái)一樣，然后洗發(fā)水的價(jià)格下降一半，護(hù)發(fā)素的價(jià)格翻番，或許我們就可以說(shuō)洗頭的成本上升了。
What happens in practice depends on the detail of the instructions to the mystery shopper and the frequency with which the relative weights of the components of the basket are reassessed.
實(shí)際情況取決于這位神秘購(gòu)物者得到的詳細(xì)指令，以及籃子里各物品相對(duì)權(quán)重重新調(diào)整的頻率。
擴(kuò)展：與月亮有關(guān)的詞匯
aim [level] at the moon 想入非非, 野心太大
as changeable as the moon 象月亮一樣善變; 反復(fù)無(wú)常
bark [bay] at the moon [bay the moon] 空嚷嚷;徒勞; 枉費(fèi)心機(jī)
below [under] the moon 月下的;塵世的
boast1 above [beyond] the moon 捧上天, 海闊天空地吹牛
moon away 虛度時(shí)光
over the moon 欣喜若狂
moon-faced 圓臉的
moonhead 笨蛋;傻瓜
moonstruck 發(fā)狂的, 神經(jīng)錯(cuò)亂的
cast beyond the moon 癡心妄想; 胡亂猜測(cè), 想入非非
cover oneself with the moon 露宿(指流浪漢與失業(yè)者)
cry [ask, wish] for the moon 異想天開(kāi), 想做辦不到的事情, 想要得不到的東西
(make) believe [think] that the moon is made of green cheese (要人)相信最荒.唐的事;愚蠢到極點(diǎn), 愚弄人
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如何計(jì)算市場(chǎng)收益率雙語(yǔ)
