你對這個世界有多少認(rèn)識?漢斯·羅斯林帶著他著名的全球人口、健康和收入數(shù)據(jù)表格(還有一根超級長的教學(xué)棒)，來證明你認(rèn)為知道的那些事實，在統(tǒng)計中有很大概率是錯誤的。再配上他的觀眾測驗——然后，從漢斯的兒子奧拉那里，學(xué)習(xí)4種能快速擺脫變無知的方法。下面是小編為大家收集關(guān)于TED英語演講：世界有多邪惡，歡迎借鑒參考。

　　世界有多邪惡，我們就有多無知

　　Hans Rosling: I’m going to ask youthree multiple choice questions.Use this device. Use this device to answer.The first question is, how did the numberof deaths per yearfrom natural disaster,how did that change during the last century?Did it more than double,did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,or did it decrease to less than half?Please answer A, B or C.I see lots of answers. This is muchfaster than I do it at universities.They are so slow. They keepthinking, thinking, thinking.Oh, very, very good.

　　漢斯·羅斯林：我會給你們做三道多項選擇題用這個裝置來回答第一個問題是 在過去一個世紀(jì)里每年因自然災(zāi)害死亡的人數(shù)發(fā)生了怎樣的變化是翻倍了還是在全世界范圍內(nèi)總體不變還是下降了一半呢請選擇A B 或C我已經(jīng)看到很多人回答了 這比我在大學(xué)里做的時候快得多他們動作很慢 他們一直想啊 想啊好 很好

　　And we go to the next question.So how long did women 30 years oldin the world go to school:seven years, five years or three years?A, B or C? Please answer.

　　下一個問題在全世界范圍內(nèi) 30歲的女性的受教育的年限是七年 五年還是三年A B 還是C 請回答

　　And we go to the next question.In the last 20 years, how did the percentageof people in the worldwho live in extreme poverty change?Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.Did it almost double,did it remain more or less the same,or did it halve?A, B or C?

　　我們看下一個問題過去20年里占世界人口多少百分比的人生活在極端貧困中?極端貧困指的是每天填不飽肚子是幾乎翻倍了還是基本維持不變還是減半了?A B 或 C

　　Now, answers.You see,deaths from natural disasters in the world,you can see it from this graph here,from 1900 to 2000.In 1900, there was about half a million peoplewho died every year from natural disasters:floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.And then, how did that change?

　　現(xiàn)在 公布答案如你所見全球因自然災(zāi)害死亡的人數(shù)你可以從這幅圖里看到從1900年到2000年1900年 每年有接近50萬人死于自然災(zāi)害洪水 地震 火山噴發(fā) 其他 干旱然后 發(fā)生了怎樣的變化呢

　　Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.This is how they answered.The Swedish public answered like this:Fifty percent thought it had doubled,38 percent said it’s more or less the same,12 said it had halved.This is the best data from the disaster researchers,and it goes up and down,and it goes to the Second World War,and after that it starts to fall and it keeps fallingand it’s down to much less than half.The world has been much, much more capableas the decades go byto protect people from this, you know.So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

　　Gapminder對瑞典公眾進(jìn)行了調(diào)查他們是這樣回答的瑞典公眾的回答是這樣的50%的人認(rèn)為翻倍了38%的人認(rèn)為沒太大變化12%的人認(rèn)為減半了對于災(zāi)害研究人員來說這是最理想的數(shù)字然后上下有所浮動然后到了二戰(zhàn)之后就開始一路下滑下降至遠(yuǎn)低于一半這個世界 相比數(shù)十年前而言在保護(hù)人們免受自然災(zāi)害方面的能力已經(jīng)強了太多只有12%的瑞典人知道這一點

　　So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.(Laughter) (Applause)The chimps don’t watch the evening news,so the chimps,they choose by random, so theSwedes answer worse than random.Now how did you do?That’s you.You were beaten by the chimps.(Laughter)But it was close.You were three times better than the Swedes,but that’s not enough.You shouldn’t compare yourself to Swedes.You must have higher ambitions in the world.

　　所以我去了趟動物園 問了黑猩猩同樣的問題(笑聲)(掌聲)黑猩猩才不看晚間新聞所以它們是隨機選擇的所以瑞典人的正確率還不如隨機現(xiàn)在來看看你們做的怎樣?這是你們的答案你們被黑猩猩打敗了(笑聲)但很接近了你們的正確率比瑞典人高了三倍但這還不夠你們不應(yīng)該拿自己跟瑞典人比你們對于世界的野心肯定不止于此

　　Let’s look at the next answer here: women in school.Here, you can see men went eight years.How long did women go to school?Well, we asked the Swedes like this,and that gives you a hint, doesn’t it?The right answer is probably the onethe fewest Swedes picked, isn’t it?(Laughter)Let’s see, let’s see. Here we come.Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.This is the U.S. public.And this is you. Here you come.Ooh.Well, congratulations, you’retwice as good as the Swedes,but you don’t need me —

　　來看下一個答案 女性所受的學(xué)校教育這里 你可以看到男性是八年女性所受的學(xué)校教育年限是?瑞典人是這么回答的你從這里能總結(jié)出規(guī)律了 是吧正確的答案很可能是最少瑞典人選擇的那個 對吧(笑聲)咱們來看看 開始沒錯 沒錯 女性幾乎趕上了這是美國公眾的選擇然后這里是你們的選擇 請看噢祝賀大家 你們的正確率比瑞典人高一倍但是你們不需要我來

　　So how come? I think it’s like this,that everyone is aware that there are countriesand there are areaswhere girls have great difficulties.They are stopped when they go to school,and it’s disgusting.But in the majority of the world,where most people in the world live,most countries, girls today go to schoolas long as boys, more or less.That doesn’t mean that gender equity is achieved,not at all.They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,but schooling is there in the world today.Now, we miss the majority.When you answer, you answeraccording to the worst places,and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

　　怎么會這樣? 我想這是因為大家都知道在有些國家有些地區(qū)女孩子們依然處于巨大的困境之中她們不被允許去學(xué)校這是令人無法接受的但是在世界上的大部分地方在大部分人生活的地區(qū)絕大多數(shù)國家 女孩子們上學(xué)的時間和男孩子們一樣長 或多或少這并不意味著男女平等已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了完全不是她們依然受到許多嚴(yán)重的束縛但學(xué)校教育已經(jīng)成為了主流現(xiàn)在 我們忽略了大多數(shù)情形當(dāng)你回答問題時 你以最差的情形為依據(jù)這并不意味著你錯了但是你把大多數(shù)情形給忽略了

　　What about poverty?Well, it’s very clear that poverty herewas almost halved,and in U.S., when we asked the public,only five percent got it right.And you?Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.(Laughter) (Applause)That little, just a few of you!There must be preconceived ideas, you know.And many in the rich countries,they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.Of course they think so,because they don’t even know what has happened.The first thing to think about the futureis to know about the present.

　　關(guān)于貧困呢?非常明顯貧困率幾乎減半然而在美國 但我們向公眾提問時只有5%的人回答正確那你們呢?差一點就跟黑猩猩一樣了(笑聲)(掌聲)一點點 就差你們中的一小部分人!先入為主的觀念是一定存在的很多富裕國家都認(rèn)為我們永遠(yuǎn)無法消除極端貧困他們當(dāng)然是這么認(rèn)為的因為他們根本不知道發(fā)生了些什么想要預(yù)知未來必須先了解現(xiàn)在

　　These questions were a few of the first onesin the pilot phase of the Ignorance Projectin Gapminder Foundation that we run,and it was started, this project, last yearby my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)He’s cofounder and director,and he wanted, Ola told mewe have to be more systematicwhen we fight devastating ignorance.So already the pilots reveal this,that so many in the public score worse than random,so we have to think about preconceived ideas,and one of the main preconceived ideasis about world income distribution.

　　以上這些問題是由我們負(fù)責(zé)的Gapminder基金會在 無知項目 的試運行階段所提出的問題中的一部分這個項目是在去年 由我的老板同時也是我的兒子 奧拉·羅斯林啟動的 (笑聲)他是聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼總監(jiān)并且他想要 奧拉告訴我我們在對抗驚人的無知的戰(zhàn)斗中需要更具有系統(tǒng)性試運行結(jié)果已經(jīng)表明有許多公眾的得分比隨機選擇還要低所以我們不得不對那些先入為主的觀點進(jìn)行思考其中一個主要的觀點是關(guān)于世界上的收入分配

　　Look here. This is how it was in 1975.It’s the number of people on each income,from one dollar a day —(Applause)See, there was one hump here,around one dollar a day,and then there was one hump heresomewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.The world was two groups.It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,the poor ones and the rich ones,and there were fewer in between.

　　看這個 這是1975年的數(shù)據(jù)是人均收入的數(shù)值從每天一美元(掌聲)看 這里有一個高峰在每天一美元左右然后這里還有一個高峰大約在10到100美元之間世界上有兩大群體像駱駝一樣 有兩個駝峰窮人和富人介于兩者之間的人較少

　　But look how this has changed:As I go forward, what has changed,the world population has grown,and the humps start to merge.The lower humps merged with the upper hump,and the camel dies and we have a dromedary worldwith one hump only.The percent in poverty has decreased.Still it’s appallingthat so many remain in extreme poverty.We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,but that can be ended now.

　　但是我們來看看數(shù)字是如何變化的隨著時間推移 發(fā)生了什么樣的變化隨著世界人口的增長兩個駝峰開始合并低的駝峰向高的駝峰融合駱駝死了 然后我們得到了一頭新的單峰駱駝只有一個駝峰貧困人口的比例減少了但是依然很驚人有這么多人仍然生活在極端貧困中大概還有接近10億人但這是可以被終結(jié)的

　　The challenge we have nowis to get away from that,understand where the majority is,and that is very clearly shown in this question.We asked, what is the percentage of the world’sone-year-old children who have got thosebasic vaccines against measles and other thingsthat we have had for many years:20, 50 or 80 percent?Now, this is what the U.S.public and the Swedish answered.Look at the Swedish result:you know what the right answer is.(Laughter)Who the heck is a professor ofglobal health in that country?Well, it’s me. It’s me.(Laughter)It’s very difficult, this. It’s very difficult.(Applause)

　　我們現(xiàn)在所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是如何擺脫這些觀念 去了解大多數(shù)人的處境這一點在以下問題中得到了充分的體現(xiàn)問 世界上有多少比例的一歲兒童接種了那些我們已經(jīng)使用了多年的對抗麻疹以及其他疾病的疫苗百分之20 50 還是80?這是美國和瑞典公眾的回答看看瑞典的結(jié)果你就該知道正確的答案是什么了(笑聲)該國有個搞全球健康研究的教授 是誰好吧 是我(笑聲)這非常難 非常困難(掌聲)

　　However, Ola’s approachto really measure what we know made headlines,and CNN published these results on their weband they had the questions there, millions answered,and I think there were about 2,000 comments,and this was one of the comments. I bet no member of the mediapassed the test, he said.

　　然而 奧拉用于測量我們所知多少的方法 上了頭條CNN在網(wǎng)站上公布了調(diào)查結(jié)果有幾百萬人回答了這些問題然后我記得大概有兩千多條評論其中一條是這么說的 我打賭新聞界沒人能通過這個測試 他說

　　So Ola told me, Take these devices.You are invited to media conferences.Give it to them and measure what the media know. And ladies and gentlemen,for the first time, the informal resultsfrom a conference with U.S. media.And then, lately, from the European Union media.(Laughter)You see, the problem is not that peopledon’t read and listen to the media.The problem is that themedia doesn’t know themselves.

　　然后奧拉跟我說 帶上這些設(shè)備你被邀請參加的是媒體圈的會議分給他們 然后測一測新聞界知道多少 女士們 先生們首先 是來自一場美國媒體會議上的非正式結(jié)果之后 是來自歐盟媒體的(笑聲)大家看 問題并不在于人們不讀或者不聽新聞問題在于連媒體自己都不知道

　　What shall we do about this, Ola?Do we have any ideas?(Applause)

　　我們對此該怎么辦呢 奧拉?有什么主意嗎?(掌聲)

　　Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,I’m so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.Fortunately, I will be able to comfort youby showing why it was not your fault, actually.Then, I will equip you with some tricksfor beating the chimps in the future.That’s basically what I will do.

　　奧拉·羅斯林：是的 我有個主意 但首先對于你們被黑猩猩打敗 我表示很抱歉幸運的是 我有辦法安慰你們因為其實這不是你們的錯然后 我會給你們提供一些竅門以便你們以后能夠打敗黑猩猩我接下去會做的基本就是這些

　　But first, let’s look at why are we so ignorant,and it all starts in this place.It’s Hudiksvall. It’s a city in northern Sweden.It’s a neighborhood where I grew up,and it’s a neighborhood with a large problem.Actually, it has exactly the same problemwhich existed in all the neighborhoodswhere you grew up as well.It was not representative. Okay?It gave me a very biased viewof how life is on this planet.So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.We have a personal bias.

　　首先 來看看為什么我們會如此的無知一切都始于這個地方這是胡迪克斯瓦爾 瑞典北部的一座城市我在這個地方長大這個地方有著一個很大的問題實際上 這個地方跟你們從小所居住的那些地方存在著一模一樣的問題那就是不具備典型性他讓我對于“其他人是如何生活的”的看法是帶有很強烈的偏見的所以這是“無知拼圖”的第一塊我們有個人偏見

　　We have all different experiencesfrom communities and people we meet,and on top of this, we start school,and we add the next problem.Well, I like schools,but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,because they learned somethingwhen they went to school,and now they describe this world to the studentswithout any bad intentions,and those books, of course, that are printedare outdated in a world that changes.And there is really no practiceto keep the teaching material up to date.So that’s what we are focusing on.So we have these outdated factsadded on top of our personal bias.

　　我們在各自的社區(qū) 和我們所遇見的人身上所獲得經(jīng)驗都是不同的在此之上 我們還會上學(xué)這就帶來了下一個問題當(dāng)然 我喜歡學(xué)校但老師們傾向于教授過時的世界觀因為這些東西是他們上學(xué)的時候?qū)W到的現(xiàn)在 盡管不帶有任何的惡意他們又將這些知識教給了學(xué)生還有書 在這個瞬息萬變的世界里那些印刷出來的書 當(dāng)然也是過時的并且沒有一個有效的措施能使教材與時俱進(jìn)所以這就是我們的關(guān)注點我們知道的是過時的情況加上我們的個人偏見

　　What happens next is news, okay?An excellent journalist knows how to pickthe story that will make headlines,and people will read it because it’s sensational.Unusual events are more interesting, no?And they are exaggerated,and especially things we’re afraid of.A shark attack on a Swedish personwill get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

　　接下去就是新聞了 對吧?一個杰出的記者很清楚要如何選題才能上頭條人們之所以會看是因為它聳人聽聞不尋常的事件才更有意思 不是嗎?然后他們會夸大其詞尤其是那些令我們害怕的事情一名瑞典人遭到鯊魚的攻擊這類新聞會在瑞典媒體上保持頭條幾星期

　　So these three skewed sources of informationwere really hard to get away from.They kind of bombard usand equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,and on top of it we put the very thingthat makes us humans, our human intuition.It was good in evolution.It helped us generalizeand jump to conclusions very, very fast.It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,and we seek causality where there is none,and we then get an illusion of confidencewhere we believe that we are the best car drivers,above the average.Everybody answered that question, Yeah, I drive cars better.

　　我們很難擺脫這三類歪曲的消息來源它們對我們狂轟濫炸并且用許多奇怪的觀點武裝來我們的思維在此基礎(chǔ)上 再加上一項人類獨特的功能我們的直覺直覺對進(jìn)化是有利的它幫助我們很快的進(jìn)行歸納和總結(jié)幫助我們夸大我們所懼之事當(dāng)所懼之事沒有發(fā)生時 我們就會尋找其中的因果關(guān)系然后我們會獲得莫名的自信比如我們都自信自己是最好的司機高于平均水平每個人都會回答：沒錯 我的車開的更好

　　Okay, this was good evolutionarily,but now when it comes to the worldview,it is the exact reason why it’s upside down.The trends that are increasing are instead falling,and the other way around,and in this case, the chimpsuse our intuition against us,and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.It was supposed to be our strength, wasn’t it?

　　好吧 這對進(jìn)化來說是件好事但是 當(dāng)涉及到世界觀時這恰恰是導(dǎo)致結(jié)論顛倒的原因有些趨勢在上升而不是下降有些則相反在這個例子中 黑猩猩利用我們的直覺打敗了我們并且這逐漸成為了我們的弱點 而不是優(yōu)勢這應(yīng)該是我們的優(yōu)勢所在的 不是嗎?

　　So how do we solve such problems?First, we need to measure it,and then we need to cure it.So by measuring it we can understandwhat is the pattern of ignorance.We started the pilot last year,and now we’re pretty sure that we will encountera lot of ignorance across the whole world,and the idea is really toscale it up to all domainsor dimensions of global development,such as climate, endangered species, human rights,gender equality, energy, finance.All different sectors have facts,and there are organizations trying to spreadawareness about these facts.So I’ve started actually contacting some of them,like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,and asking them, what are your favorite factswhich you think the public doesn’t know?

　　那么我們該如何解決這類問題呢?首先 我們要進(jìn)行衡量然后我們再來糾正這里指的衡量 是我們能夠明白造成無知的規(guī)律是什么試運行是去年啟動的現(xiàn)在我們很肯定的是 在全球范圍內(nèi)我們對許多東西是無知的我們的想法是將此擴展到關(guān)系到全球發(fā)展的所有領(lǐng)域或者維度比如氣候 瀕危物種 人權(quán)性別平等 能源 金融每個行業(yè)都會有一些真相并有一些組織正在努力擴大大眾對于這些真相的認(rèn)知度所以我聯(lián)系了其中的一些像世界自然基金會 國際特赦組織和聯(lián)合國兒童基金會我問他們 “有哪些你們所熟知的事你認(rèn)為公眾是不知道的?”

　　Okay, I gather those facts.Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.And then we poll the publicand see where they score worst.So we get a shorter listwith the terrible results,like some few examples from Hans,and we have no problem finding these kindsof terrible results.Okay, this little shortlist, whatare we going to do with it?Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,a global knowledge certificate,which you can use, if you’re a large organization,a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.Basically meaning, we don’t hire peoplewho score like chimpanzees.Of course you shouldn’t.So maybe 10 years from now,if this project succeeds,you will be sitting in an interviewhaving to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

　　好了 我收集到了如下事實想像一下 一張很長的清單 大概列舉了250項然后我們對公眾進(jìn)行調(diào)查由此知道哪些項目得分是最低的然后我們獲得了一個短一點的清單其結(jié)果令人震驚比如之前漢斯給出的一些例子我們可以輕而易舉的給出這類令人震驚的結(jié)果好了 對于這張短一點的清單我們可以做些什么?我們把它變成了一張“知識證書”一張全球知識證書 可供你使用的如果你是一個大型組織一所學(xué)校 大學(xué) 或者新聞通訊社用來驗證你自己具有全球化的知識體系本質(zhì)上來說 我們不會聘用那些得分和黑猩猩一樣高的人當(dāng)然 你也不應(yīng)該所以也許10年之后如果這個項目獲得成功你將不得不在面試中寫出這些全球知識

　　So now we come to the practical tricks.How are you going to succeed?There is, of course, one way,which is to sit down late nightsand learn all the facts by heartby reading all these reports.That will never happen, actually.Not even Hans thinks that’s going to happen.People don’t have that time.People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.We need to turn our intuition into strength again.We need to be able to generalize.So now I’m going to show you some trickswhere the misconceptions are turned aroundinto rules of thumb.

　　現(xiàn)在我們來談?wù)剬嵱玫募记梢绾尾拍茏龅?當(dāng)然 有一種方法就是你通宵達(dá)旦的閱讀各種報告并把所有的知識點都記在心里實際上 這是不可能發(fā)生的連漢斯都不會相信這種事情會發(fā)生人們沒那么多時間人們喜歡捷徑 現(xiàn)在 捷徑來了我們要再次把我們的直覺變成一種優(yōu)勢我們要有能力去概括現(xiàn)在我會給向家展示一些技巧以此將誤解轉(zhuǎn)變成為指導(dǎo)意見

　　Let’s start with the first misconception.This is very widespread.Everything is getting worse.You heard it. You thought it yourself.The other way to think is, most things improve.So you’re sitting with a question in front of youand you’re unsure. You should guess improve. Okay? Don’t go for the worse.That will help you score better on our tests.(Applause)That was the first one.

　　我們從第一個誤解開始這是一個廣泛流傳的誤解所有的事都在朝更壞的方向發(fā)展你聽說過 你自己也是這么想的從另一個角度想一想 其實大多數(shù)事情都在變好所以當(dāng)你面前出現(xiàn)了一個問題而你不太確定答案時 你應(yīng)該猜“進(jìn)步”好嗎? 別選壞的那個這會幫助你在我們的測試中獲得更高的分?jǐn)?shù)(掌聲)這是第一點

　　There are rich and poorand the gap is increasing.It’s a terrible inequality.Yeah, it’s an unequal world,but when you look at the data, it’s one hump.Okay? If you feel unsure,go for the most people are in the middle. That’s going to help you get the answer right.

　　窮人和富人之間的貧富差距正在拉大非常的不平等是的 這是個不平等的世界但是當(dāng)你對照數(shù)據(jù)時 會發(fā)現(xiàn)只有一個駝峰對嗎? 所以如果你覺得不確定就選“大部分人在中間”這會幫助你正確的回答問題

　　Now, the next preconceived idea isfirst countries and people need to be very, very richto get the social developmentlike girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.No, no, no. That’s wrong.Look: that huge hump in the middlealready have girls in school.So if you are unsure, go for the the majority already have this, like electricity and girls inschool, these kinds of things.They’re only rules of thumb,so of course they don’t apply to everything,but this is how you can generalize.

　　現(xiàn)在 下一個先入為主的觀點是發(fā)達(dá)國家和人民需要在非常富裕的情況下社會才能得以發(fā)展例如讓女孩子上學(xué) 或者抵御自然災(zāi)害不不不 這是錯誤的看 處于中間的那一大塊駝峰已經(jīng)解決了女孩上學(xué)的問題所以如果你不確定 就選”大部分已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了“例如電力 女性教育 這一類的問題這些只是指導(dǎo)意見所以并不適用于所有情況但這能幫你進(jìn)行總結(jié)概括

　　Let’s look at the last one.If something, yes, this is a good one,sharks are dangerous.No — well, yes, but they are not so importantin the global statistics, that is what I’m saying.I actually, I’m very afraid of sharks.So as soon as I see a questionabout things I’m afraid of,which might be earthquakes, other religions,maybe I’m afraid of terrorists or sharks,anything that makes me feel,assume you’re going to exaggerate the problem.That’s a rule of thumb.Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.Sharks kill very, very few.That’s how you should think.

　　我們來看看最后一個如果有什么 沒錯 這張照片很贊鯊魚很危險其實不是 話雖不錯 但是沒那么嚴(yán)重從全球的數(shù)據(jù)來看 這是我想說的其實 我本人非常害怕鯊魚當(dāng)我看到那些關(guān)于我所害怕的東西的提問時比如地震 其他宗教比如我害怕鯊魚任何讓我感到害怕的東西你很有可能會夸大問題的嚴(yán)重性這是指導(dǎo)意見之一當(dāng)然 有些危險的事物確實會造成嚴(yán)重的后果因鯊魚致死的人非常少這才是你應(yīng)有的思維方式

　　With these four rules of thumb,you could probably answer better than the chimps,because the chimps cannot do this.They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.And hopefully we can turn your world aroundand we’re going to beat the chimps. Okay?(Applause)That’s a systematic approach.

　　有了以上四條技巧你很有可能會取得比黑猩猩更好的成績因為黑猩猩無法做到這些他們無法總結(jié)概括這些技巧希望我們能夠改變你的世界然后我們一起來打敗黑猩猩 好嗎(掌聲)這是一個系統(tǒng)的方法

　　Now the question, is this important?Yeah, it’s important to understand poverty,extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school.When we realize that actually it’ssucceeding, we can understand it.But is it important for everyone elsewho cares about the rich end of this scale?I would say yes, extremely important,for the same reason.If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understandwhat’s coming next in the future.

　　那么現(xiàn)在問題來了 這很重要嗎是的 這對理解貧窮極端貧窮 以及如何與之斗爭很重要以及如何讓女孩子們上學(xué)當(dāng)意識到這些問題實際正在改善時我們才能理解這些問題本身但是 會有人在意處于富裕一端的人嗎這很重要嗎我想說是的 非常非常重要同樣的理由如果你對當(dāng)今世界的認(rèn)知是基于事實的那么你才可能會有機會去預(yù)測將來會發(fā)生什么

　　We’re going back to these two humps in 1975.That’s when I was born,and I selected the West.That’s the current EU countries and North America.Let’s now see how the rest and the West comparesin terms of how rich you are.These are the people who can affordto fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.In 1975, only 30 percent of them livedoutside EU and North America.But this has changed, okay?So first, let’s look at the change up till today, 2014.Today it’s 50/50.The Western domination is over, as of today.That’s nice. So what’s going to happen next?Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF,International Monetary Fund, website.They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.So I can use that to go five years into the future,assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.I did that, but I went even further.I used those five years for the next 20 yearswith the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.Let’s move into the future.In 2020, it’s 57 percent in the rest.In 2025, 63 percent.2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.Seventy-three percent of the rich consumersare going to live outside North America and Europe.So yes, I think it’s a good idea for a company to use this certificateto make sure to make fact-based decisions in the future.

　　我們回過頭來看1975年的這兩個峰值也就是我剛出生的時候我選擇了西方國家也就是現(xiàn)在的歐盟和北美國家我們來看看其他地區(qū)和西方國家的比較關(guān)于富裕程度這些是能夠負(fù)擔(dān)得起坐飛機出國度假的人1975年的時候 只有30%的人是住在歐盟和北美以外的地區(qū)但是情況已經(jīng)變了首先 我們來看看當(dāng)今的情況 2014年現(xiàn)在是一半一半西方國家的統(tǒng)治在當(dāng)今已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了很好 那么接下去會發(fā)生什么呢?你看到那個高峰了嗎? 你看到它是如何變化的嗎?我做了一個小試驗 我查看了國際貨幣基金組織的網(wǎng)站他們對今后五年的GDP做了一個預(yù)測所以我可以借此來推測未來5年的變化假設(shè)各國的貧富差距保持不變除此以外 我還做了進(jìn)一步的預(yù)測我用未來5年的數(shù)據(jù)對未來20年做了預(yù)測同樣的變化速度 就像一個實際很可能會發(fā)生的試驗一樣讓我們移步未來2020年 57%來自非西方國家2025年 63%2030年 68% 到了2035年西方國家在富裕消費者市場中的比例被趕超這些僅僅是針對未來的GDP所作出的推測73%的富裕消費者將居住在北美和歐洲以外的地區(qū)所以沒錯 我認(rèn)為公司應(yīng)該用“知識證書”來確保未來能作出基于事實的決策

　　Thank you very much.(Applause)

　　非常感謝(掌聲)

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