金融雙語閱讀：“麥當(dāng)勞式經(jīng)銷”傷及中國汽車業(yè)利潤率

　　下面學(xué)習(xí)啦小編為大家?guī)斫鹑陔p語閱讀：“麥當(dāng)勞式經(jīng)銷”傷及中國汽車業(yè)利潤率 ，希望大家喜歡!

　　Starbucks, McDonald’s and KFC outlets are all too common sights in towns and cities across much of the world. 在世界許多地方的大小城鎮(zhèn)，幾乎到處都能看到星巴克(Starbucks)、麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald's)和肯德基(KFC)的門店。

　　But in China, it seems, you are just as likely to run into a car dealership selling the wares of one of the country’s best-selling auto manufacturers. 但在中國，同樣尋?？梢姷乃坪跏侵袊鴰状髸充N車品牌的經(jīng)銷商。

　　According to calculations by Robin Zhu, a senior analyst at Bernstein, GM, VW Group and Nissan have 8,400 dealerships in China between them, within a whisker of the 8,600 McDonald’s, KFCs and Starbucks outlets the Middle Kingdom boasts, as the first chart shows. 根據(jù)伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)高級分析師Robin Zhu的估算，通用汽車(GM)、大眾汽車集團(tuán)(VW Group)和日產(chǎn)(Nissan)在中國合計有8400家經(jīng)銷商，與這個“中央王國”擁有的麥當(dāng)勞、肯德基和星巴克門店數(shù)量(合計為8600家)相差無幾。

　　And that is not taking into account the 5,100 dealerships in the distribution networks of five other foreign auto manufacturers: Honda, Toyota, PSA Peugeot Citro?n, Ford and Hyundai. 這還沒算上本田(Honda)、豐田(Toyota)、標(biāo)致雪鐵龍(PSA Peugeot Citro?n)、福特(Ford)和現(xiàn)代(Hyundai)這五家外國汽車制造商分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的5100家經(jīng)銷商。

　　Perhaps unsurprisingly, Mr Zhu wonders if this might be too many, suggesting this “McDealering” could be a “catalyst for chaos” in 2016. Robin Zhu質(zhì)疑這是不是有點太多了(他有這種想法或許并不令人意外)，稱這種“麥當(dāng)勞式經(jīng)銷”(McDealering)可能會在2016年“催生混亂”。

　　“Do Chinese cities really need as many car dealers as fast food restaurants? We think these numbers highlight just how large and dense the dealer networks have become, and the extent to which over-penetration has become a problem,” he says. 他說：“中國城市真的需要和快餐店一樣多的汽車經(jīng)銷商嗎?我們認(rèn)為這些數(shù)字突顯出，經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)已變得多么龐大和密集，‘過度覆蓋’的問題已變得多么嚴(yán)重。

　　“[This] over-dealering represents one of the most significant challenges for pricing and profitability in the Chinese auto industry, and one of the most under-appreciated structural issues among investors.” “(這種)經(jīng)銷商過多的局面代表著中國汽車業(yè)定價和盈利能力面臨的最嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)之一，也代表著投資者普遍嚴(yán)重低估的一個結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。”

　　One of Bernstein’s concerns is that the proximity of many dealerships is encouraging buyers to play them off against each other, eroding retail pricing power. This danger is exacerbated by the presence of intra-brand competition, where two or more chains of dealers compete head-to-head. 伯恩斯坦關(guān)注的一點是，許多經(jīng)銷商彼此離得太近，導(dǎo)致買家可以挑動它們鷸蚌相爭，零售定價能力因此受到削弱。品牌內(nèi)部競爭(即同品牌下的兩家或多家經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)互相搶生意)的存在，更是加劇了這種風(fēng)險。

　　In Beijing for instance, two of the three largest dealer networks sell Volkswagens: FAW VW and Shanghai VW, both joint ventures with Chinese state-owned manufacturers, as the second chart shows. 例如，在北京，三個最大的經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)當(dāng)中，有兩個是賣大眾汽車的：一汽大眾(FAW-Volkswagen)和上海大眾(Shanghai Volkswagen)。這兩家都是大眾與中國國有制造商組建的合資企業(yè)。

　　This problem is not limited to megacities such as Beijing, where Bernstein counts 391 dealerships among the top 21 brands, and Shanghai, with 344 dealers. 這個問題不止限于北京和上海等特大型城市——伯恩斯坦估計，21個最知名品牌在北京有391家經(jīng)銷商，在上海有344家。

　　Even in cities it dubs Tier 2 and 3, it found each of these 21 brands had an average of 4 outlets per city, with Shanghai VW typically having seven or eight a city and FAW VW five or six (in addition to another six or seven for VW Group’s Skoda and Audi marques). 伯恩斯坦發(fā)現(xiàn)，即便在它所謂的二三線城市，這21個品牌平均每個品牌在每個城市也有四家經(jīng)銷商，上海大眾在每個城市通常有七八家，一汽大眾有五六家(這還不包括大眾集團(tuán)旗下斯柯達(dá)(Skoda)和奧迪(Audi)品牌擁有的六七家)。

　　“Cannibalisation amongst dealers was one of the main contributors to declining retail pricing over the summer of 2015 as dealers of the same brand increasingly tried to undercut one another, and looks set to remain a risk,” says Mr Zhu. Robin Zhu表示：“經(jīng)銷商之間互相搶生意是導(dǎo)致2015年夏零售定價能力不斷下降的主要原因之一，同一品牌旗下的經(jīng)銷商越來越多地試圖彼此殺價。這種風(fēng)險似乎將持續(xù)存在。”

　　As EM Squared reported this month, car sales in China are currently strong, with a temporary tax cut helping push light vehicle sales to a record high of 24.2m (on a seasonally adjusted annual basis) in November, underlining the country’s position as the world’s largest market. 正如本月另一篇報道《中國驅(qū)動全球汽車銷量增長》所述，眼下中國車市興旺，一項臨時的減稅政策幫助推動11月輕型車銷量(以經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整后的年化銷量計)達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2420萬輛，有力地彰顯出了中國的全球最大汽車市場地位。

　　Bernstein argues that expectations of strong sales growth have drowned out concerns about overcapacity, but that the dealer network “remains unsustainable”, with more than 26,000 dealers at the end of 2014 — 60 per cent more than in the US. 伯恩斯坦辯稱，盡管對銷售將強(qiáng)勁增長的預(yù)期淹沒了對銷售能力過剩的擔(dān)憂，但這樣的經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)“仍是不可持續(xù)的”——截至2014年底，中國有逾2.6萬家經(jīng)銷商，比美國多60%。

　　Indeed, while the US has about 13,000 Starbucks outlets and 12,800 McDonald’s restaurants, the number of Ford dealerships is less than 3,500. Toyota, the world’s largest car company by unit sales, has 1,750 outlets in the US and Canada. 確實，盡管美國有大約1.3萬家星巴克門店和1.28萬家麥當(dāng)勞餐廳，但福特經(jīng)銷商的數(shù)量不足3500家。按銷量計為全球最大汽車公司的豐田，在美國和加拿大有1750家經(jīng)銷商。

　　Mr Zhu goes as far as to claim that running a Chinese dealer is increasingly akin to a “McJob” — unstimulating, low-paid and with few prospects — and this in turn is ”putting off Chinese entrepreneurs”. Robin Zhu甚至表示，在中國經(jīng)營一家經(jīng)銷店越來越像是在麥當(dāng)勞工作——沒勁、薪酬低，也沒啥前途——這反過來“讓中國人不愿經(jīng)營經(jīng)銷店”。

　　With new car profitability “looking permanently impaired” and after-sale service margins now “under attack” following a market liberalisation that allowed consumers to service their cars at a non-franchise location during the warranty period, he believes a crunch may be looming for manufacturers. 新車盈利能力“似乎受到了永久性損害”，而市場自由化使得消費(fèi)者能夠在保修期間在非4S店做保養(yǎng)，經(jīng)銷店的售后服務(wù)利潤率正“受到?jīng)_擊”?？紤]到這些因素，Robin Zhu認(rèn)為汽車制造商可能即將遭遇危機(jī)。

　　“We expect many to face the unpalatable choice of accepting shrinking distribution scale, impacting sales, or financially supporting hundreds of increasingly challenged dealers, impacting pricing and profitability,” says Mr Zhu. 他表示：“我們預(yù)計許多汽車制造商將面臨無奈的選擇，要么接受分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)?？s水的局面，要么向成百上千日益面臨挑戰(zhàn)的經(jīng)銷商提供財務(wù)支持，前者影響銷售，后者損害定價和盈利能力。

　　“Returns in the market may be about to fall irreversibly.” “市場回報率可能即將不可逆轉(zhuǎn)地下降。”

　　GM, VW and Nissan all declined to comment. 通用、大眾和日產(chǎn)均拒絕置評。