精彩文章:最糟糕的五種理財(cái)方式
精彩文章:最糟糕的五種理財(cái)方式
摘錄:“反向可轉(zhuǎn)債”是一種合法的金融產(chǎn)品，不過此類產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜，其本身存在著潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。加利福尼亞州洛斯阿爾托斯(Los Altos)的資產(chǎn)管理公司Bedrock Capital Management的首席投資長(zhǎng)埃里克?劉易斯(Eric Lewis)建議，如果你無法向自己的朋友解釋清楚一項(xiàng)投資，包括這項(xiàng)投資可能會(huì)面臨什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，那么你最好三思而行。
精彩文章:最糟糕的五種理財(cái)方式
You know the smartest things to do with your money. But what are the worst moves? What should you avoid?
Weirdly enough, they are things that a surprising number of people are still doing─even though they probably know, in their heart of hearts, how foolish they really are.
Any list is going to be incomplete. But here are five to avoid.
自己的錢該怎么打理才最明智，對(duì)此你一定心知肚明。但是你知道最糟糕的做法是什么嗎?哪些是你應(yīng)該避免的呢?
奇怪的是，那些應(yīng)該避免的事情卻有很多人仍然在做，而且人數(shù)之多讓人瞠目──盡管這些人在內(nèi)心深處可能很清楚自己的做法實(shí)際上有多愚蠢。
想把這些蠢事一個(gè)不落地全列出來恐怕不可能。不過我們可以試著列出其中的五件。
1. Reaching for yield
1. 追求高收益率
What this country needs is a good 5% certificate of deposit. Instead the collapse in interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping them down for as long as possible, is driving people crazy─especially people who need to generate income from their investments.
美國(guó)這個(gè)國(guó)家需要的是收益率能夠達(dá)到5%的定期存單。然而，這里有的只是利率的一降再降，以及聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)盡量將利率維持在低位的政策，這樣的現(xiàn)狀逼得人們愈加瘋狂──對(duì)于那些需要從投資中獲取收益的人而言尤其如此。
In these circumstances, people start to do really foolish things in the desperate hunt for higher interest rates. That includes taking on crazy amounts of risk, or investing in complex products they don't understand, in the hope of higher yields. The Fed is producing a bull market in scams, Ponzi schemes and associated rackets.
在此環(huán)境下，人們?cè)诮^望地尋找著更高的收益率，并為此開始犯下著實(shí)愚蠢的錯(cuò)誤。這其中包括為爭(zhēng)取獲得更高的收益率而不惜承擔(dān)極高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、或是投資那些他們毫不了解的復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在打造著一個(gè)各類陰謀、旁氏騙局和欺詐手段層出不窮的牛市。
The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned about an epidemic of bogus high-yield 'corporate promissory notes' being marketed to investors by scam artists.
美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(Securities and Exchange Commission)最近提醒投資者小心，目前市場(chǎng)中有一種由騙子發(fā)行的虛假高收益“企業(yè)本票”在大量傳播。
The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig highlighted the woes of those sold complex 'reverse convertibles, ' a legal but complicated product with embedded risks. Eric Lewis, chief investment officer of Bedrock Capital Management in Los Altos, Calif., suggests that if you can't explain an investment to a friend, including what might go wrong, you should think twice.
《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(The Wall Street Journal)的杰森?茨威格(Jason Zweig)指出了那些賣出“反向可轉(zhuǎn)債”這一復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品的投資者所面臨的困境，“反向可轉(zhuǎn)債”是一種合法的金融產(chǎn)品，不過此類產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜，其本身存在著潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。加利福尼亞州洛斯阿爾托斯(Los Altos)的資產(chǎn)管理公司Bedrock Capital Management的首席投資長(zhǎng)埃里克?劉易斯(Eric Lewis)建議，如果你無法向自己的朋友解釋清楚一項(xiàng)投資，包括這項(xiàng)投資可能會(huì)面臨什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，那么你最好三思而行。
A high-yield bond fund such as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (HYG)， which lends money to risky companies, sports a yield of about 5%. That's the maximum yield you can earn without taking on much more risk.
諸如安碩高收益率企業(yè)債交易所交易基金(iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund)這樣的高收益率債券基金為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的企業(yè)提供貸款，這類基金的收益率約為5%。這是你在不承擔(dān)過高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況下能夠掙到的最高收益率。
2. Going into the poor house to send Junior to a country-club college
2. 傾家蕩產(chǎn)送孩子去私立大學(xué)讀書
Over the past 40 years, the cost of tuition and fees at a private university has tripled─after accounting for inflation. The cost of a public university has quadrupled.
過去40年來，美國(guó)私立大學(xué)的學(xué)費(fèi)以及各種開銷增長(zhǎng)了兩倍──扣除了通貨膨脹因素之后。公立大學(xué)的就讀成本則是40年前的四倍。
The cost of getting a bachelor's degree has become a scandal in this country. Students spend 0, 000 on a four-year degree and the results are too often questionable.
在美國(guó)攻讀一個(gè)本科學(xué)位所需開銷數(shù)字之大，簡(jiǎn)直成了這個(gè)國(guó)家的恥辱。學(xué)生完成為期四年的學(xué)位攻讀需要花費(fèi)16萬美元，而學(xué)習(xí)的效果往往還很成問題。
Financial planners strongly advise parents against plundering their own retirement savings, which they are likely to need, to pay for this.
理財(cái)專家們強(qiáng)烈建議學(xué)生家長(zhǎng)們不要將自己的養(yǎng)老積蓄用來為孩子付學(xué)費(fèi)，這筆錢他們自己可能還用得著。
Admittedly, a degree has become a protection racket─you can't get a job without one, but there are fewer jobs for those with them. But the smart move for the budget-constrained is to get a bachelor's degree at a public university. The tuition and fees average less than , 000 a year instead of , 000 at a private college.
誠然，學(xué)位已經(jīng)成為一種護(hù)身符──沒有它，你可能找不到工作，不過即便有了學(xué)位，職場(chǎng)中能夠提供的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)也少了。而對(duì)于預(yù)算開支不那么富裕的家庭而言，明智的選擇是去公立大學(xué)讀一個(gè)本科學(xué)位。讀一所美國(guó)公立大學(xué)每年所需的學(xué)費(fèi)和各種雜費(fèi)平均不到9,000美元，而私立大學(xué)則需要三萬美元。
3. Owning stock in your employer
3. 持有自己所工作企業(yè)的股票
This is one of the silliest and riskiest moves any investor can make. If the company hits trouble, you get whacked twice. You can lose your job and your savings─all in one fell swoop. Ask anyone who worked for Enron…or Lehman Brothers.
這大概是投資者能夠做出的最愚蠢、最冒險(xiǎn)的舉動(dòng)之一了。如果這家公司遇上麻煩，你將遭受雙重打擊。你可能會(huì)在丟了飯碗的同時(shí)，丟掉自己的積蓄──一桿子打翻一籃子的蛋。不信你去問問那些曾為安然(Enron)、或是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)工作過的人。
The law, amazingly, actually encourages this crazy move. While employers' 401(k) plans are subject to punitive regulations, lest they allow you to take on too much 'risk, ' employers are allowed to offer their own stock among the investment options. Many do.
令人驚訝的是，美國(guó)的法律實(shí)際上在鼓勵(lì)這種瘋狂的舉動(dòng)。雖然企業(yè)的401(k)計(jì)劃受到監(jiān)管部門監(jiān)管，若企業(yè)讓員工承擔(dān)過高“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”，則會(huì)受到懲罰，但是監(jiān)管規(guī)定允許企業(yè)向員工提供企業(yè)自己的股票作為投資選擇之一。而實(shí)際上許多企業(yè)也在這么做。
The Employee Benefit Research Institute says that the percentage of 401(k) assets held in employers' stock has been halved since 2000, but the numbers are still alarming. Furthermore, it's the youngest workers─those best able to take a gamble─who are shunning their employers' company stock.
員工福利研究所(Employee Benefit Research Institute)表示，自2000年以來，401(k)資產(chǎn)中雇主股票的占比已經(jīng)減少了一半，不過目前的數(shù)字依然很驚人。而且，如今不愿意持有自己公司股票的員工是那些最年輕的人，而這些人其實(shí)是承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力最高的人。
At companies where the 401(k) plan offers the option, workers aged 40 or over typically hold about 20% of their entire 401(k) account in the company's stock, according to EBRI data. Crazy.
根據(jù)員工福利研究所的數(shù)據(jù)，在那些于401(k)計(jì)劃中提供了持有本公司股票這一投資選擇的公司中，年齡在40歲或者以上的員工通常會(huì)將自己的401(k)賬戶中大約20%的資產(chǎn)用于投資本公司股票。這簡(jiǎn)直是瘋了。
4. Taking Social Security too early
4. 過早支取社保金
If you can afford to delay taking your Social Security retirement benefit, do.
如果你有能力晚點(diǎn)支取自己的社保養(yǎng)老金，那么就晚點(diǎn)吧。
Someone earning , 000 a year who starts claiming Social Security as soon as he or she is able, age 62, will typically collect a monthly check of about class="main">
精彩文章:最糟糕的五種理財(cái)方式
根據(jù)美國(guó)社會(huì)安全局(Social Security Administration)的數(shù)據(jù)，年薪五萬美元的員工若在自己年滿62歲這一支取社保金的規(guī)定年齡后即開始使用社保，則通常每月可以得到大約1,000美元。如果他們能夠等到70歲，那么這個(gè)數(shù)字將會(huì)翻倍。
Taking Social Security too early, or without thinking through the consequences, is one of the biggest financial blunders people can make─roughly on a par with buying tech stocks in 2000 or a Las Vegas condo in 2006. The lure of getting money early can blind people to the big cost down the road.
過早支取社保金，毫不考慮后果，這是美國(guó)人可能犯下的最大的理財(cái)錯(cuò)誤之一──其不明智的程度堪比在2000年買入科技股或是在2006年買下拉斯維加斯的一套公寓。早點(diǎn)拿到錢的誘惑可能會(huì)讓人們對(duì)未來即將付出的巨大代價(jià)視而不見。
(Many retirees may not have much of a choice. Hard labor at low pay over a lifetime takes its toll on a person. Also, many companies all but force older workers into early retirements.)
(許多退休者可能沒有太多選擇。一輩子拿著低薪從事著艱苦的工作，是很折磨人的。而且，許多公司幾乎是在強(qiáng)迫高齡員工早點(diǎn)退休。)
In any case, it doesn't take more than just a few years before the total money accrued with the higher, later benefits surpasses the total earned starting at the earlier retirement age.
無論如何，多等上些時(shí)候去享受更高的福利，這樣積累下來的數(shù)額用不了幾年就能超過在退休年齡初期即開始提取的全部社保金額。
But that understates the bigger issue. Social Security is insurance. For many retirees, the big risk isn't that they will run out of money before they turn 70, but after 85. According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than half of women currently age 65 will live to 85 or longer, and three out of eight men.
不過，這樣說會(huì)讓人們忽視一個(gè)更大的問題。社保金是一種保險(xiǎn)。對(duì)于許多退休者而言，最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不在于他們會(huì)在70歲之前沒錢了，而是在85歲之后。根據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心(Centers for Disease Control)的數(shù)據(jù)，目前年齡在65歲的女性中，超過半數(shù)的人將活到85歲甚至更久，男性中的這個(gè)比例為八分之三。
David Blanchett, head of retirement research for financial research firm Morningstar, says it makes sense for women, married couples and those with good health to wait longer for a bigger paycheck.
晨星公司(Morningstar)負(fù)責(zé)退休問題研究的主管戴維?布蘭切特(David Blanchett)說，對(duì)于女性、已婚夫婦和那些身體狀況良好者而言，應(yīng)該多等些時(shí)間以便得到更高的福利，因?yàn)檫@樣做更為合理。
5. Buying long-term bonds
5. 購買長(zhǎng)期債券
A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality, bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.
令人吃驚的人，仍有很多人接受這樣的觀點(diǎn)：包括長(zhǎng)期政府債券在內(nèi)的債券是“安全的”。實(shí)際上，債券──特別是長(zhǎng)期政府債券──是少有的一種已經(jīng)被明確宣告的泡沫。
The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在毫不掩飾地大肆印著鈔票，并用這些印出來的鈔票買國(guó)債，從而抬高這類債券的價(jià)格，壓低利率，以便能夠幫助提振美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。這一點(diǎn)毫無爭(zhēng)議。這是公開的政策。
A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
30年期美國(guó)國(guó)債目前的收益率僅為3.1%。這比長(zhǎng)期通貨膨脹預(yù)期僅高出半個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。如果以過往的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來衡量，30年期國(guó)債的收益率應(yīng)該至少達(dá)到4.5%，比通貨膨脹率高出兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
30年期通脹掛鉤國(guó)債的“實(shí)際”年收益率，即扣除通貨膨脹因素后的收益率，為0.6%。而以過往的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來衡量，這一收益率應(yīng)當(dāng)是2%。
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
購買這類債券的唯一理由只能是押注經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)重現(xiàn)上世紀(jì)30年代那樣的大蕭條，而且會(huì)出現(xiàn)全球性的通貨緊縮。投資這類債券是在賭博，不是避險(xiǎn)。