今天小編帶來(lái)的是關(guān)于商務(wù)英語(yǔ)的文章。下面是學(xué)習(xí)啦小編帶來(lái)的，歡迎閱讀!

　　關(guān)于商務(wù)英語(yǔ)的文章

　　A Changed Global Reality 世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局新變化

　　Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. 對(duì)于新世紀(jì)，我們得這樣說(shuō)：我們生活在一個(gè)有趣的時(shí)代。差不多兩年半之前，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入了20世紀(jì)30年代經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期以來(lái)最慘重的低迷狀態(tài)。世界貿(mào)易進(jìn)程大幅放緩。失業(yè)隊(duì)伍也越來(lái)越快，這在舊工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系表現(xiàn)尤為突出。原來(lái)堅(jiān)如磐石的金融機(jī)構(gòu)也消失了，似乎還不如老套的魔術(shù)師變的花束看起來(lái)真實(shí)。

　　Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. 考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退幅度如此的跨時(shí)代，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程會(huì)很慢也是理所當(dāng)然的，對(duì)此我們不應(yīng)該感到吃驚。事實(shí)也正如我們所料，復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程確實(shí)很慢。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英乘直升飛機(jī)、大巴、小汽車或是火車前往達(dá)沃斯參加一年一度的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇會(huì)議，此次會(huì)議上，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己開(kāi)始接受一些聞所未聞的事情。

　　The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. 當(dāng)今的情況是這樣的。自工業(yè)革命以來(lái)的二百多年間，世界出現(xiàn)了兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。一個(gè)支配著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和貿(mào)易，累積了大量財(cái)富。另一個(gè)在政治上主要受前者的控制，在經(jīng)濟(jì)上一直處于貧窮狀態(tài)并且在技術(shù)上存在依賴性。兩者的鴻亙古存在。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家----美國(guó)、加拿大、西歐、澳大利亞、新西蘭、日本及亞洲四小龍，以世界總?cè)丝诘?6%輸出著世界將近70%的產(chǎn)品。

　　But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. 世界形勢(shì)正發(fā)生著變化。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的富人們努力重新刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并維持社會(huì)福利的時(shí)候，曾經(jīng)的窮人們卻已經(jīng)擺脫了經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。像中國(guó)和印度這樣大的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)找到了國(guó)內(nèi)需求的新來(lái)源。非洲的部分地區(qū)也正吸引著對(duì)他們真正感興趣的投資者?？傊?，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的力量撐起了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。據(jù)世界銀行估計(jì)，2010年，中低收入國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)約占世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一半(46%)。

　　A Sigh of Relief 經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖，令人欣慰

　　In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. 從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看來(lái)，這真的是個(gè)好消息。隨著幾十億的貧苦人們開(kāi)始變得富有起來(lái)，他們也將能夠支付得起發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人們所擁有過(guò)的享受，而這些享受在富人們眼中僅僅是普通的生活附屬品而已。但是，在慶祝一個(gè)新的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序建立之前，我們必須克服國(guó)與國(guó)之間以及國(guó)家內(nèi)部存在的深層分歧。否則，世界將會(huì)重新陷入以鄰為壑的民粹主義，最終每個(gè)人都淪為乞丐，我們?nèi)晕疵撾x困境。

　　First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. 不過(guò)首先讓我們?cè)u(píng)估一下目前情況?，F(xiàn)在世界的狀況比一年前我們所想象的要好得多。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直害怕發(fā)生的“雙底衰退”也從未出現(xiàn)過(guò)。2008年的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎一直停滯不前，但是現(xiàn)在一些早期跡象表明顧客開(kāi)始消費(fèi)了，銀行也開(kāi)始發(fā)放貸款了，同時(shí)股市也在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條兩年半之后達(dá)到了巔峰狀態(tài)。盡管歐洲一直在一重接一重的主權(quán)外債危機(jī)下茍延殘喘，但是它到目前為止已經(jīng)避免了最糟糕的狀況-----歐元崩潰，歐元崩潰是一種債務(wù)危機(jī)，從希臘和愛(ài)爾蘭這樣小的經(jīng)濟(jì)體流竄到意大利和西班牙這樣大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并且加劇了一些國(guó)家的社會(huì)騷亂，這些國(guó)家在縮減公共預(yù)算的同時(shí)不得不減少薪資。

　　Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year. 聽(tīng)到如此多鼓舞人心的消息(或者至少是沒(méi)有很糟糕的消息)，高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)缀踝兊幂p率起來(lái)，最近他們更新了2011年全球和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)(分別是4.8%和3.4%)。盡管2010年是“令人懷疑的一年”，但是高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們宣稱2011年肯定是經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一年，努里爾•盧比尼----美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，這次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的預(yù)言者，認(rèn)為如果一切都順利，并且沒(méi)有更糟糕的事情發(fā)生，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)將近4%。

　　It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light." 有人肯定會(huì)說(shuō)：并不是每個(gè)人都同意這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。吉姆•沃克----香港亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)分析咨詢公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，預(yù)測(cè)2011年將會(huì)是“清算之年”。沃克談到，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的反彈只是由過(guò)度刺激形成的海市蜃樓。他認(rèn)為美國(guó)將會(huì)落入2010年僥幸躲避過(guò)去的“雙底衰退”之中。即使是不那么悲觀的人也擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有恢復(fù)。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)2011年經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈會(huì)逐漸消失，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也可能會(huì)低于2010年。一月中旬，世界銀行估測(cè)全球GDP增長(zhǎng)將由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶魯大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬•羅奇認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍會(huì)極力從上次經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)和扭曲中脫身。“這真是一次緩慢的后經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)考驗(yàn)。”羅奇說(shuō)道，“我并不準(zhǔn)備給經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)亮綠燈”。

　　The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. 這種謹(jǐn)慎是可以理解的。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，失業(yè)率仍然很高(美國(guó)是9.4%，歐元區(qū)是10.1%)。2008年9月的私營(yíng)部門債務(wù)危機(jī)到2010年11月已經(jīng)演變?yōu)楣膊块T危機(jī)。這是由經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)和救助銀行時(shí)所累積的債務(wù)和財(cái)政赤字造成的。

　　Politicians are being forced to scale back spending even though the recovery remains weak. In Britain, deep cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs. In the U.S., the miserable condition of state and local governments' budgets is likewise leading to a job-killing retrenchment. Europe's imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investor's perception of risk. Noting that the U.S. "has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory," Moody's in mid-January warned that the country's AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moody's upgraded Indonesia's rating. 雖然復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程依舊疲緩，政客們?nèi)耘f被迫縮減開(kāi)支。在英國(guó)，首相戴維•卡梅倫大幅消減預(yù)算很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致幾十萬(wàn)人失業(yè)。在美國(guó)，國(guó)家和地方政府糟糕的預(yù)算同樣也會(huì)導(dǎo)致工作崗位的緊縮。歐洲采取的財(cái)政緊縮政策也加劇了政治沖突。日漸高磊的債臺(tái)以及發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的疲軟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景讓投資者們開(kāi)始重新審視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。注意到美國(guó)“對(duì)于穩(wěn)定和最終扭轉(zhuǎn)不斷向上的債務(wù)曲線是沒(méi)有任何適合計(jì)劃的”，穆迪于一月中旬發(fā)出警告：如果債務(wù)持續(xù)攀升，國(guó)家AAA級(jí)信用評(píng)級(jí)會(huì)面臨被降級(jí)的危險(xiǎn)。幾天之后，穆迪更新了印尼的評(píng)級(jí)。

　　The emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation — a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and commodity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loose-money policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over a barrel, "are entering a dangerous zone" that could threaten the global recovery. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said its food-price index reached an all-time high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 2008's surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. "Just at the point you start to see a recovery coming, you get hit by commodity prices that hit people's incomes," says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. 新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體也面臨著自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最緊急的就是通貨膨脹急速加劇----這是強(qiáng)勁的國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)、刺激政策以及全球物價(jià)上漲的結(jié)果，而全球物價(jià)上漲則是由需求重返、實(shí)際供應(yīng)緊張以及西方寬松的貨幣政策導(dǎo)致的。一月初，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家法提赫•比羅爾發(fā)出警告：現(xiàn)在的石油價(jià)格每桶已經(jīng)超過(guò)90美元，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正踏入一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域，可能會(huì)威脅全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織表示，食品價(jià)格指數(shù)在12月份達(dá)到新高，甚至超過(guò)了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，人們生存必需品價(jià)格如此暴漲，令人非常難以接受。“就在你剛剛看到經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的曙光的時(shí)候，你立馬被沖擊人們收入的物價(jià)敲了當(dāng)頭一棒，”匯豐銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬•金如此說(shuō)道。在新興市場(chǎng)，其后果可能會(huì)更加嚴(yán)重。高物價(jià)也加劇了突尼斯政府的衰敗。

　　Fearing the consequences, policymakers throughout the developing world have switched priorities from holding up growth to fighting inflation. In mid-January, China raised the reserve-requirement ratio — which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make — to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November. In India, raging food prices, galloping ahead by nearly 17% from a year earlier, have become such a sensitive issue that when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country, it sparked a minor diplomatic row. The same measures used to bust inflation, however, will also dampen growth. The World Bank predicts slowdowns for roaring China (from 10% growth in 2010 to 8.7% in 2011) and India (9.5% to 8.4%). 由于擔(dān)心造成類似的后果，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的決策者決定把優(yōu)先保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)為優(yōu)先抵抗通貨膨脹。一月中旬，中國(guó)將存款準(zhǔn)備金率上調(diào)至歷史新高----強(qiáng)制銀行每放一筆貸款就必須在央行存放更多的儲(chǔ)備金，以期減少放貸、抑制通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹在十一月達(dá)到兩年來(lái)新高。在印度，瘋狂的物價(jià)較去年已飛速增長(zhǎng)了近17%，這已經(jīng)成為了非常敏感的問(wèn)題。以致于巴基斯坦在臨時(shí)縮減對(duì)印度的洋蔥出口時(shí)引發(fā)了輕微的外交爭(zhēng)執(zhí)。然而，消除通貨膨脹的措施也會(huì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。世界銀行預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)展迅速的中國(guó)和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)放緩，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)由2010年的10%下降到2011年的8.7%，印度由9.5%下降到8.4%。

　　Was It for This? 這就是為了未來(lái)而進(jìn)行的所謂的“合作”嗎?

　　Such numbers, of course, are beyond the dreams of workers and consumers in developed economies. Millions from Michigan to Madrid want to work but can't — leading them to put countless small dreams for themselves and their families on hold — so the risk that the shift of economic power will breed populist resentment rises. Many in the developed world are only now becoming aware that the globe's economic future will be determined not just in London or New York City but in Beijing and New Delhi too. "The problem that Western economies have is that they haven't realized the full effect of the rise of the emerging world," says HSBC's King. 當(dāng)然，這樣的數(shù)字是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的工人和消費(fèi)者做夢(mèng)都不敢想的。從密歇根到馬德里，上百萬(wàn)的人們想要工作但卻不能----這使他們將自己和家人的無(wú)數(shù)小夢(mèng)想都暫時(shí)擱置----因此，由經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力改變引起的民粹主義不滿情緒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的許多人就剛剛才意識(shí)到，未來(lái)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅僅由倫敦或紐約這樣的城市決定，也同樣由北京和新德里這樣的城市決定。“西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體所面臨的問(wèn)題是：他們沒(méi)有意識(shí)到新興世界興起的全面影響，”匯豐銀行主席如是說(shuō)。

　　One suspects they soon will. The summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington took place in a highly charged atmosphere. China is tired of being lectured to by those who seem unable to manage their own economies particularly well. U.S. politicians, with an ear to their constituents, are lobbying for protective tariffs if China does not allow its currency to appreciate. U.S. businesses, which have in the past been supportive of free trade and engagement with China, are beginning to sing with different voices. Large technology and industrial companies grumble that China's pursuit of "indigenous innovation" through regulatory and procurement policies is freezing them out of potentially lucrative markets. 有人猜測(cè)聽(tīng)他們很快就會(huì)意識(shí)到這個(gè)問(wèn)題。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬和中國(guó)國(guó)家主席胡錦濤在華盛頓舉行峰會(huì)，氣氛高度緊張。中國(guó)厭倦了被那些連自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)都管理不好的國(guó)家討伐。如果中國(guó)不允許人民幣升值，愿意聽(tīng)從選民意見(jiàn)的美國(guó)政客們將會(huì)游說(shuō)保護(hù)性關(guān)稅。而且，那些過(guò)去大力支持與中國(guó)進(jìn)行自由貿(mào)易和合作的商業(yè)家們也開(kāi)始唱反調(diào)。

　　In the U.S. and Europe, a certain helplessness in the face of huge economic forces is fueling a disaffection — which makes itself felt in different ways in different societies — with the global financial elites and the policymakers who are thought to have connived with them. There was a particularly poignant moment when Ireland, which cherishes its independence like a precious jewel, was forced to go cap in hand to the E.U. for a bailout in November. "Was it for this?" The Irish Times asked in a famous editorial on the humiliation. The question (though few outside Dublin got the reference) was an echo of a line from W.B. Yeats' great poem "September 1913," which excoriated a bourgeois capitalism whose merchants "fumble in a greasy till/ And add the halfpence to the pence/ And prayer to shivering prayer, until/ You have dried the marrow from the bone." 在美國(guó)和歐洲，面對(duì)巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力卻無(wú)能為力的現(xiàn)象正激起著人們對(duì)全球的金融精英以及決策者的不滿，認(rèn)為金融精英與決策者們串通一氣，這種不滿在不同社會(huì)表現(xiàn)形式不同。視獨(dú)立如珍寶的愛(ài)爾蘭，11月，為了得到救助，不得不求助于歐盟，這令人感到非常心酸。“這就是愛(ài)爾蘭想要的嗎?”愛(ài)爾蘭時(shí)報(bào)在關(guān)于屈辱的著名社論中問(wèn)道。這個(gè)問(wèn)題(盡管只有愛(ài)爾蘭人才能真正明白其中含義)與威廉•巴特勒•葉芝的著名詩(shī)作“1913年9月”中的一行詩(shī)產(chǎn)生共鳴，它痛斥資產(chǎn)階級(jí)資本主義，因?yàn)樗麄兊纳倘?ldquo;在滿是油污的錢柜里摸索/一點(diǎn)一點(diǎn)地積攢/不停地禱告直到榨干工人們的最后一滴血。”

　　How can a disaffection with global capitalism in the developed world be prevented from turning into a backlash against it? It would help if there were mechanisms in place to manage the stresses in the international economy. Instead, there is something close to a breakdown in global economic cooperation. The WEF's closely read Global Risks report identifies "global governance failures" as an overarching risk facing the world. "Global governance capacities are highly fragmented," the report argues. "There is a growing sense of paralysis in responding to global challenges." 如何阻止人們對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家倡導(dǎo)的全球資本主義的不滿演變?yōu)閺?qiáng)烈抵制?如果有適當(dāng)?shù)臋C(jī)制來(lái)調(diào)控國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力可能會(huì)起作用。而恰恰相反的是，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)合作接近崩潰。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇倍受關(guān)注的全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告指出當(dāng)今世界面臨的首要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是“全球治理失敗”。報(bào)告稱，“全球治理能力高度分散，人們應(yīng)對(duì)全球挑戰(zhàn)越來(lái)越無(wú)力。”

　　In the economic field, that is especially true. The Doha round of trade talks, for example, is like the emperor's new clothes in Hans Christian Andersen's famous tale: everyone knows there's nothing there, but nobody will say so. The spirit of camaraderie forged in the early days of the financial crisis — all the hopeful meetings and optimistic communiqués of the G-20 — has been replaced by every-country-for-itself thinking. As nations scramble to protect their own people from the continued fallout of the Great Recession, the threat of currency and trade wars has become very real. Governments from Tokyo to Santiago have been intervening in currency markets, imposing measures to restrict capital flows and taking other steps to try to prevent rising currencies from denting export competitiveness. "The currency war is a proxy for a jobs war," says Roach. In the mind of every policymaker looms — at least, it should — the disastrous spiral into protectionism that deepened the Depression in the 1930s. 在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，這種問(wèn)題更加突出。例如，多哈回合貿(mào)易談判就像安徒生著名的童話故事中皇帝的新裝一樣：每個(gè)人都知道談判不會(huì)有什么結(jié)果，但是沒(méi)有人說(shuō)出來(lái)。早期金融危機(jī)鑄就的互助友愛(ài)的精神----20國(guó)集團(tuán)所有的充滿希望的會(huì)議和振奮人心的公告----都被各國(guó)自私利己的想法替代了。由于各國(guó)面對(duì)日趨嚴(yán)峻的大蕭條境況，都急于保護(hù)本國(guó)人民的利益，因此貨幣和貿(mào)易之戰(zhàn)已成為非?，F(xiàn)實(shí)的威脅。從東京到圣地亞哥的政府一直都在干預(yù)貨幣市場(chǎng)，采取措施限制資本流動(dòng)，并盡力阻止不斷升值的貨幣削弱出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。“貨幣之戰(zhàn)其實(shí)就是工作崗位之戰(zhàn)，”羅奇說(shuō)道。決策者至少應(yīng)該想到，這種災(zāi)難性的螺旋式保護(hù)主義曾加劇了20世紀(jì)30年代的大蕭條。

　　Yet the unmediated rift between countries, each desperate to preserve its edge in the global economic game, is not even the most serious division that policymakers have to contend with. That, rather, is what the WEF's Global Risks calls economic disparity. "The benefits of globalization seem unevenly spread," reads the report. "A minority is seen to have harvested a disproportionate amount of the fruits. Issues of economic disparity and equity at both the national and international levels are becoming increasingly important ... Politically, there are signs of resurgent nationalism and populism as well as social fragmentation." 在這場(chǎng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)技中，每個(gè)國(guó)家都誓死保持自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)，然而，這種國(guó)家間的即刻裂痕并不是決策者們需要應(yīng)對(duì)的最嚴(yán)重分歧。其實(shí)，這種裂痕就是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所說(shuō)的經(jīng)濟(jì)差距。“全球化帶來(lái)的好處似乎分布不均衡，”報(bào)告表明，“小部分地區(qū)似乎付出與收獲并不成比例。國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)差距與公平越來(lái)越重要.......政治上，有民族主義，民粹主義以及社會(huì)分裂抬頭的跡象。”

　　The warning is timely. In the rich world, the gains that the working class made during what the French call the trente glorieuses after 1945 — decent health care, guaranteed pensions — are seen as increasingly fragile. In the developing world, economic success sometimes seems to go hand in hand with growing inequality. 報(bào)告為人們及時(shí)敲響了警鐘。法國(guó)人稱1945年之后的三十年為“輝煌三十年”，在這三十年里，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的工人們創(chuàng)造了豐厚的收益----全面的醫(yī)保，有保障的養(yǎng)老金，然而現(xiàn)在這些優(yōu)越條件都在慢慢瓦解。

　　None of these divisions — between and within nations — are ones that have to last for ever. But it will take hard work and creativity — both within discrete polities and in international forums — if they are not to cloud what should be the happy prospect of a world in which many, many more people live lives that are fulfilling and comfortable. We can see that meadow at the end of the woods. But we aren't in it yet. 國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)的這些分歧，沒(méi)有一個(gè)會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)存在。世界的前景是美好的----越來(lái)越多的人們生活得非常充實(shí)與舒適，如果不想破壞如此美好的未來(lái)，他們就必須在解決國(guó)際與國(guó)內(nèi)事務(wù)上努力工作，發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造力。我們已經(jīng)可以看到灌木叢深處的草木了，但是我們?nèi)耘f未進(jìn)入到那個(gè)世界。